Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Educational Sciences, Faculty of Education and Psychology, Mohaghegh Ardabili University, Ardabil, Iran.
2 PhD Graduate in Educational Administration, Faculty of Educational Sciences and Psychology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
3 PhD in Educational Administration, Faculty of Educational Sciences and Psychology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran
Abstract
The present study was conducted with the aim of designing a model for ethical, predictive, data-driven leadership in higher education using a grounded-theory approach. This research is basic in terms of objective and qualitative in terms of execution. The target population included professors in the fields of educational management, higher education management, and philosophy of education at the University of Mohaghegh Ardabili and Farhangian University of Ardabil. Using criterion-based and theoretical purposive sampling, 15 experts were selected, and data were gathered through in-depth, semi-structured interviews conducted from May 2026 to September 2026, continuing until reaching theoretical saturation. To ensure the trustworthiness and credibility of the data and findings, three methods were employed: researcher reflexivity, triangulation, and auditor review. Following data collection, the interviews were analyzed using a coding process involving open, axial, and selective stages. The findings indicated that the ethical predictive data-driven leadership model in higher education is organized into 103 open codes, 22 categories, and 6 paradigmatic dimensions, including the core phenomenon, causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, strategies, and consequences. The primary identified categories included developing ethical, forward-looking, and human-centric capacities for responsible data-driven decision-making; establishing organizational, cultural, technological, and governance infrastructure for ethical predictive data-driven leadership; organizational, human, and technological capacity and readiness to implement such leadership; employing transformative, ethical, and data-driven strategies for predictive decision-making and forward-looking university management; and enhancing governance, trust, performance, resilience, and strategic capacity in higher education through ethical predictive data-driven leadership. Accordingly, the designed model can, by bridging ethical leadership approaches and predictive data-driven capabilities as a novel paradigm, provide the foundation for realizing smart governance and promoting sustainable effectiveness in the higher education system.
Keywords
- Ethical Leadership
- Predictive Leadership
- Data-Driven Leadership
- Higher Education System
- Grounded Theory
Main Subjects
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